Bitcoin price forecast: BTC holds above $105k ahead of FOMC

Key takeaways

• BTC continues to trade above $105k despite the ongoing Middle East crisis.
• Traders are focusing on today’s FOMC meeting results, which could move the markets.

The cryptocurrency market has been bearish since the Israel-Iran crisis began. However, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies haven’t recorded heavy losses as many would have expected.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, lost 1.4% of its value over the last 24 hours, and still trades around the $105k region. Over the past seven days, BTC has only lost 4% of its value, an impressive feat considering the scale at which conflicts affected Bitcoin’s performance in the past.

BTC holding around the $105k indicates that investors remain bullish despite the current market conditions. Even as BTC price continues to fluctuate, managing it in a secure bitcoin wallet is key for robust protection of your digital asset.

Traders shift attention to today’s FOMC meeting

While the Israel-Iran conflict continues to take centre stage, the major headline today is the FOMC meeting. The United States Federal Reserve will discuss the future path of interest rates, along with the impact that tariffs and Middle East turmoil will have on the economy.

Analysts expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but other important signals could move the market. Investors would be watching to see if the Fed will stick with its previous forecast of two rate cuts this year. If they do, expect Bitcoin’s price to soar higher in the short term.

While commenting on this, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said,

“The Fed’s main message at the June meeting will be that it remains comfortably in wait-and-see mode. Investors should focus on Powell’s take on the softening labour data, the recent benign inflation prints, and the risks of persistent tariff-driven inflation.”

BTC could rally to $108k amid institutional demand

Bitcoin’s price has been able to hold the $105k level thanks to growing institutional demand. So far this week, Metaplanet and Strategy have added thousands of bitcoins to their treasuries. Furthermore, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $408.60 million on Monday, indicating strong demand among financial institutions.

After retesting its key support at $103,430 on Tuesday, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has held, and Bitcoin could rally towards the $108k level in the short term. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator on the daily chart is hovering around its neutral level of 50, indicating indecision among traders. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still within the bearish territory but could likely crossover if bulls hold their positions. 

If Bitcoin recovers and closes above its FVG level at $108,064, it could retest its all-time high price of $111k in the coming days.

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